Actors and factors - bridging social science findings and urban land use change modeling

Recent uneven land use dynamics in urban areas resulting from demographic change, economic pressure and the cities’ mutual competition in a globalising world challenge both scientists and practitioners, among them social scientists, modellers and spatial planners. Processes of growth and decline specifically affect the urban environment, the requirements of the residents on social and natural resources. Social and environmental research is interested in a better understanding and ways of explaining the interactions between society and landscape in urban areas. And it is also needed for making life in cities attractive, secure and affordable within or despite of uneven dynamics.\ud The position paper upon “Actors and factors – bridging social science findings and urban land use change modeling” presents approaches and ideas on how social science findings on the interaction of the social system (actors) and the land use (factors) are taken up and formalised using modelling and gaming techniques. It should be understood as a first sketch compiling major challenges and proposing exemplary solutions in the field of interest

Towards global volcano monitoring using multisensor sentinel missions and artificial intelligence: The MOUNTS monitoring system

Most of the world’s 1500 active volcanoes are not instrumentally monitored, resulting in deadly eruptions which can occur without observation of precursory activity. The new Sentinel missions are now providing freely available imagery with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions, with payloads allowing for a comprehensive monitoring of volcanic hazards. We here present the volcano monitoring platform MOUNTS (Monitoring Unrest from Space), which aims for global monitoring, using multisensor satellite-based imagery (Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar SAR, Sentinel-2 Short-Wave InfraRed SWIR, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI), ground-based seismic data (GEOFON and USGS global earthquake catalogues), and artificial intelligence (AI) to assist monitoring tasks. It provides near-real-time access to surface deformation, heat anomalies, SO2 gas emissions, and local seismicity at a number of volcanoes around the globe, providing support to both scientific and operational communities for volcanic risk assessment. Results are visualized on an open-access website where both geocoded images and time series of relevant parameters are provided, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the temporal evolution of volcanic activity and eruptive products. We further demonstrate that AI can play a key role in such monitoring frameworks. Here we design and train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) on synthetically generated interferograms, to operationally detect strong deformation (e.g., related to dyke intrusions), in the real interferograms produced by MOUNTS. The utility of this interdisciplinary approach is illustrated through a number of recent eruptions (Erta Ale 2017, Fuego 2018, Kilauea 2018, Anak Krakatau 2018, Ambrym 2018, and Piton de la Fournaise 2018–2019). We show how exploiting multiple sensors allows for assessment of a variety of volcanic processes in various climatic settings, ranging from subsurface magma intrusion, to surface eruptive deposit emplacement, pre/syn-eruptive morphological changes, and gas propagation into the atmosphere. The data processed by MOUNTS is providing insights into eruptive precursors and eruptive dynamics of these volcanoes, and is sharpening our understanding of how the integration of multiparametric datasets can help better monitor volcanic hazards

Development of a High Level Waste Tank Inspection System

The Westinghouse Savannah River Technology Center was requested by it`s sister site, West Valley Nuclear Service (WVNS), to develop a remote inspection system to gather wall thickness readings of their High Level Waste Tanks. WVNS management chose to take a proactive approach to gain current information on two tanks t hat had been in service since the early 70`s. The tanks contain high level waste, are buried underground, and have only two access ports to an annular space between the tank and the secondary concrete vault. A specialized remote system was proposed to provide both a visual surveillance and ultrasonic thickness measurements of the tank walls. A magnetic wheeled crawler was the basis for the remote delivery system integrated with an off-the-shelf Ultrasonic Data Acquisition System. A development program was initiated for Savannah River Technology Center (SRTC) to design, fabricate, and test a remote system based on the Crawler. The system was completed and involved three crawlers to perform the needed tasks, an Ultrasonic Crawler, a Camera Crawler, and a Surface Prep Crawler. The crawlers were computer controlled so that their operation could be done remotely and their position on the wall could be tracked. The Ultrasonic Crawler controls were interfaced with ABB Amdata`s I-PC, Ultrasonic Data Acquisition System so that thickness mapping of the wall could be obtained. A second system was requested by Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC), to perform just ultrasonic mapping on their similar Waste Storage Tanks; however, the system needed to be interfaced with the P-scan Ultrasonic Data Acquisition System. Both remote inspection systems were completed 9/94. Qualifications tests were conducted by WVNS prior to implementation on the actual tank and tank development was achieved 10/94. The second inspection system was deployed at WSRC 11/94 with success, and the system is now in continuous service inspecting the remaining high level waste tanks at WSRC

Participatory analysis for adaptation to climate change in Mediterranean agricultural systems: possible choices in process design (versão Pre Print)

There is an increasing call for local measures to adapt to climate change, based on foresight analyses in collaboration with actors. However, such analyses involve many challenges, particularly because the actors concerned may not consider climate change to be an urgent concern. This paper examines the methodological choices made by three research teams in the design and implementation of participatory foresight analyses to explore agricultural and water management options for adaptation to climate change. Case studies were conducted in coastal areas of France, Morocco, and Portugal where the groundwater is intensively used for irrigation, the aquifers are at risk or are currently overexploited, and a serious agricultural crisis is underway. When designing the participatory processes, the researchers had to address four main issues: whether to avoid or prepare dialogue between actors whose relations may be limited or tense; how to select participants and get them involved; how to facilitate discussion of issues that the actors may not initially consider to be of great concern; and finally, how to design and use scenarios. In each case, most of the invited actors responded and met to discuss and evaluate a series of scenarios. Strategies were discussed at different levels, from farming practices to aquifer management. It was shown that such participatory analyses can be implemented in situations which may initially appear to be unfavourable. This was made possible by the flexibility in the methodological choices, in particular the possibility of framing the climate change issue in a broader agenda for discussion with the actors

Scenarios for anthropogenic copper demand and supply in China: implications of a scrap import ban and a circular economy transition

Copper is widely used in buildings, transportation and home appliances, resulting in steadily increasing demand in China. From 2013 on, China has implemented the "Green Fence" policy to restrict copper scrap imports, which have affected and will continue to affect its future copper supply. To explore how China's copper demand can be met in the future, including the effects of the "Green Fence" policy change, in this paper a stock-driven approach is combined with a scenario analysis. We compare two scenarios (Continuity Policy, Circular Economy) and assess the influence of the "Green Fence" policy on each. We conclude that effective measures to prolong product lifetime could lead to a significant reduction in copper demand. Given the limited scope for domestic mining, China will still have to depend largely on imports of primary material in the form of concentrates and refined copper or, otherwise, put major emphasis on its recycling industry and continue to import high-quality copper scrap. In combination with the establishment of a state-of-the-art, efficient and environmentally friendly recycling industry, secondary copper could satisfy the bulk of Chinese copper demand and this could be an opportunity for China to transition to a more circular economy with regard to copper.Industrial Ecolog

Pegfilgrastim ± ciprofloxacin for primary prophylaxis with TAC (docetaxel/doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide) chemotherapy for breast cancer. Results from the GEPARTRIO study

Background: TAC (docetaxel/doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide) is associated with high incidences of grade 4 neutropenia and febrile neutropenia (FN). This analysis compared the efficacies of four regimens for primary prophylaxis of FN and related toxic effects in breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant TAC. Patients and methods: Patients with stage T2-T4 primary breast cancer were scheduled to receive 6-8 cycles of TAC. Primary prophylaxis was: ciprofloxacin 500 mg orally twice daily on days 5-14 (n = 253 patients; 1478 cycles), daily granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) (filgrastim 5 μg/kg/day or lenograstim 150 μg/m2/day) on days 5-10 (n = 377; 2400 cycles), pegfilgrastim 6 mg on day 2 (n = 305; 1930 cycles), or pegfilgrastim plus ciprofloxacin (n = 321; 1890 cycles). Results: Pegfilgrastim with/without ciprofloxacin was significantly more effective than daily G-CSF or ciprofloxacin in preventing FN (5% and 7% versus 18% and 22% of patients; all P < 0.001), grade 4 neutropenia, and leukopenia. Pegfilgrastim plus ciprofloxacin completely prevented first cycle FN (P < 0.01 versus pegfilgrastim alone) and fatal neutropenic events. Conclusion: Ciprofloxacin alone, or daily G-CSF from day 5-10 (as in common practice), provided suboptimal protection against FN and related toxic effects in patients receiving TAC. Pegfilgrastim was significantly more effective in this setting, especially if given with ciprofloxaci

LBA3_PRAlpelisib (ALP) + fulvestrant (FUL) for advanced breast cancer (ABC): Results of the phase III SOLAR-1 trial

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